Trump's Ukraine Peace Proposal Is Seen As a Benefit to Russia's Leader

For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to take a resolute position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "severe repercussions" last August if Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire discussions, Trump finally enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially affected Putin's ability to finance his war effort in the region.

But, via his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would in practice benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in peril. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative actually compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, implying giving Putin a part of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. But, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a damaged region of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel the nation to surrender the entire Donetsk region. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its military have been unable to capture in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital in case he later choose to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present large number troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people government as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "Any Nazi ideology and actions must be opposed and banned." Apparently to highlight this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent agreements in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to the government – how should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "strong unified armed reaction" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include vague to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent the nation alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby preventing the security presence, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet different from a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, something they have {not