Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.