Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels The Villans' Surprising Championship Bid

It was two months in the past when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.

In the latest match, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.